O (Big) Brother Where Art thou?

While the politicians were making promises and the people busy with their choices, two important developments have happened in our country's neighbourhood in the last few days.

The first issue is the unrest and political transition in Nepal that has hogged the headlines all over the world. Ever since King Gyanendra assumed power in 2001, after the royal blood bath that killed King Birendra and his family, there has been growing tensions between the royal family and the political parties. If Maoist rebels took the path of violence to press their demand for abolition of monarchy, the King did his part in complicating the matter by dissolving the parliament and placing the country in emergency.

Finally, things crossed a threshold that people - especially the students started protesting against monarchy. The Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sent one Karan Singh (who also happens to be related to the King) to Nepal as his special envoy, after which the King agreed to restoration of Parliament and transfer of powers.

The second one, is the way the fragile peace process in Sri Lanka collapsed recently. The ceasefire between the LTTE and Sri Lankan Army since 2002, which gave hopes of a peaceful end to the ethnic struggle of more than two decades, was clearly under threat for more than a year. This became more apparent when Sri Lanka's foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar was killed in Colombo a few months ago, and a hawkish Mahinda Rajapakse was elected as the president of the island nation. The uneasy calm was finally shattered when a suicide bomber attacked the Sri Lankan Army headquarters in Colombo injuring the country's army chief, which triggered of the retaliatory attacks on LTTE bases in the north of the country. One doesn't need to be Einstein to tell the direction this is taking.

While both the above developments could fall under "internal affairs" in their respective countries, it is a fact that India's immediate neighbourhood is becoming more and more vulnerable. While India aspires to become a super power, it is an irony that it is hesitant to act when the situation is going out of control in its own backyard.

In case of Nepal, India should have acted long ago. India could have used its status as a regional biggie to impress upon the King on the need to entrust more power to the political parties thereby making the throne a ceremonial position. After all, no other country would be best placed to lecture on democracy than India. What was done towards the end by sending Karan Singh was too little too late. India's response came only after the situation started to spin out of control. It remains to be seen as how the political transition is going to work in the Himalayan kingdom and how well the King is in keeping his promise. Nepalese issue is not something to do just with the democracy. Strategic wisdom tells us that it is not a good sign for India if China keeps getting closer to Nepal. That would not only challenge the authority of India as a sub-continental power, but would also have a severe impact on the security scenario.

Considering the developments in Sri Lanka, both LTTE and the Sri Lankan government were looking towards India to intervene and help extend the truce. Giving a classic example of "once bitten, twice shy", India steadfastly refused to even look in that direction. India needs to realise that the political landscape of the region has changed a lot since the days of Indo-Srilankan accord signed by Rajiv Gandhi and Julian Jayawardane in 1987. After the accord failed miserably, India seems to have taken a policy decision not to intervene in any of its small neighbour's internal problems even when invited. This writer wonders why the policy makers wouldn't realise that the seemingly internal issue has every potential to spill across the waters of Bay of Bengal and severely undermine regional stability.

India's cup of woes doesn't stop with Nepal and Sri Lanka. India has other smaller neighbours like Bangladesh and Bhutan with their own share of problems. It is important that India should mend its fences with its smaller neighbours first promoting trade and regional security. India has no one but itself to blame when these smaller neighbours queue up to befriend the region's other major player - China.

If India ever has any intentions of becoming a great power, it must ensure that it is an unassailable power in the region in the first place. To do that, India needs a full time Foreign Minister. It is high time that the Prime Minister fills up that vacancy in his Cabinet quickly.

Not Analysing....Just Wondering

(This Indian Voter is again pleased to find a mention in one of the articles published in the Chennai edition of Deccan Herald. Unfortunately, the article is not available online. )

How do people vote? What is the thought process that goes on inside people's mind when they go out on D-day, and press the button to exercise their franchise?
- Do they care to weigh all candidates?
- Do they think about their caste/community? Do they think about the party leaders or Chief Ministerial candidate in question?
- Does the 15kg rice bags, 2000 bucks, or Colour TV dazzle in front of their eyes while standing in the line?
- Does the free commute to the polling station matter much to them?
- Will they follow the traditional way of voting for the same party their family had been voting for generations?
- Do they think about the developments in their constituency - be it newly laid out road or a new college?
- Will they be pressing some button knowing all morons are the same?
- Will they just do an inky-pinky-ponky on the buttons of the electronic voting machine?

How exactly would people vote? This is one question for which even seasoned pollsters do not have much of an answer, or even a slightest clue. In the absence of any wave such as death/assasination of a party leader (Indira Gandhi assassination in 1984, Rajiv Gandhi in 1991), strong anti-incumbency factor (against Jayalalithaa in 1996), it is very difficult to know the measuring scale of the voter before he/she presses the button. The truth is that all of the above considerations are possible, but one will never know about the factor that is uppermost in the mind of the voter.

Starting from Loyola College in Chennai, to Thuglak, to NDTV, everyone conducts opinion polls in the run up to elections. Except for Thuglak, who say that they arbitrarily choose about 100 people and get their responses, most of those who conduct the opinion polls claim that their method of data collection is scientific. Since we - the common people, are not connoiseurs in statistical analysis, we tend to either believe what they say or rubbish them with a pinch of salt. oh, and add media world's bias to the issue! - voters would have seen Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam's popularity always at an all time high in the eyes of Sun TV. The same holds good for every political party which has a media house as their patron.

However scientific their sampling might be, one important thing that should be borne in mind is the number of people who actually go out on the D-day and vote. It is a shame that we consider 55% turnout in the elections as a 'good one'. In metros like Chennai, the average turnout in the elections is normally around 40%. This is likely to be even lesser this time as the election day (8th May 2006) happens to be a Monday, which could be taken for a much awaited long weekend and cause people to flock out of the city.

Possibly because of the huge population in our towns, a random sample of even few thousand people is not sufficient enough to gauge the mood of the electorate. That is the reason why pollsters ended up with eggs thrown at their faces when they predicted the NDA cakewalk in 2004 and an AIADMK rout in 2001.

With each of the opinion polls predicting exactly the opposite results, and few neutralists predicting a nect-to-neck race, the ground situation is pretty much the same in this election too. If the actual results on May 11 throw up a hung assembly in TN as some opinion polls seem to suggest, politics of the land would get spicy, and these columns may perhaps be filled up more frequently.

Poll Promises - In search of a positive light

This Indian Voter spent some quality time going through the election manifestos of various political parties in the hope of finding at least one progressive, forward looking agenda. Not to disappoint any one, this writer could find at least one such point in every party’s manifesto. Here they are.

DMK: Introduce Metro rail in Chennai and its suburbs.

Though the Metro Rail scheme is being talked about for a long time, its necessity is more pressing now than before. If Chennai doesn't have another public transport system, the existing transport infrastructure would crumble and what we see in Bangalore would happen to Chennai in a few years. Leaving aside the importance of Metro Rail to Chennai, isn't it true that Railways is a Central subject? Surprisingly, DMK's manifesto also talks about upgrading the airports - which again doesn't come under the State Government's jurisdiction. Anyways, let us give credit to the thought.

On a different note, this is the only positive aspect in DMK's manifesto. The party is ready to give most of them free of cost to the public like '2 acres of land', 'free gas stoves', 'free colour TVs' etc. Such flamboyant schemes will only take the state backward by several paces.


AIADMK: Attract foreign companies to invest in Tamil Nadu.

Though there is no mention of 'how' they are going to do that, since TN has attracted a decent level of foreign investment in the past (especially during AIADMK regime), this point is thought of as the most positive promise in AIADMK's manifesto.

AIADMK's manifesto doesn't contain anything spectacular. Nor do they promise to dole out freebies. Either AIADMK is very confident of their past 5 years of rule or they think that people care a damn about these manifestos. Jayalalithaa's promise of 'Buy 10 kg rice & get another 10 kg free' was made during the course of campaigning and doesn't find a mention in the manifesto. Most of AIADMK's promises go like 'Ensure that TN is a garden of peace', 'Control prices' etc makes one yawn.

MDMK: Demand a legislation that makes States abide by the Cauvery Water Dispute Tribunal.

A very sensible demand. Particularly when some states make a mockery of the authority of such tribunal, one wonders about the purpose of such bodies. This demand and another one for nationalisation of rivers need to be appreciated.

MDMK has realised very well that they wouldn't have any say in the government, irrespective of which party manages to form. Probably, that is why all their points promise about 'demanding' something or other.

DMDK: Introduce bio-technology in farming.

This is one of the rare forward looking promises. It is time that India thinks about second green revolution and there is no better way to start that than bio-technology. Though this writer is not aware of how easy or difficult it would be to introduce bio-technology in farming, active government encouragement would be a welcome change.

Like DMK's manifesto, DMDK's manifesto contains lot of flashy & flamboyant schemes like door delivery of PDS goods, Rs 500 a month to all pregnant women up to 3 years etc. Unless the State Government starts a press to print currency notes, it would not be possible to implement these promises and at the same time improve the economy.

Apart from the few bits of shine here & there, none of the major players seem to have any long term vision for the state. There is not an iota of suggestion or any roadmap for growth & development. There is no talk about developing the infrastructure in the cities or sustaining the growth in small towns. Political parties especially DMK is hell bent on providing reservations to Christians & Muslims, knowing fully well that Supreme Court only recently struck down such a legislation enacted by neighbouring Andhra Pradesh. Of course, it is our mistake to expect any politician in India to think beyond the next five years.

On going through all the party manifestos, one thing that is very obvious is that the political parties have made 'rice' an election issue this time. It may be worth remembering that in 1998 onions were the election issue when Delhi Union Territory went to polls. While DMK promises to provide rice at Rs 2 per kg, AIADMK responded with a 'Buy 10, Get 10 free' scheme, DMDK went a step further by promising 15 kgs of rice free of cost. This writer wouldn't be surprised if another political party promises to provide three course meals twice a day for free.

If Tamil Nadu is reasonably well developed, secure and one of the ‘liveable’ places in India, it is not because of these political parties. It is ‘inspite of’ these parties.

PMK & Casteist Equations

Indian Voter is pleased to find a mention in the report by DNA India, which can be accessed here. Many thanks to the readers who have been encouraging me to write.

Until the late 1980s, in Tamil Nadu though politics was run based on caste affiliations, political parties refrained from being identified with any particular caste. At that time, political scenario in the state comprised of only three major players - Congress, Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Sometime in July/August 1987, Vanniyar Sangam - a casteist organisation for Vanniyas, an OBC community who are dominant in northern districts of Tamil Nadu started demanding reservation for their community in jobs & education. Vanniyar Sangam was headed by one Dr. Ramadoss, a qualified medical practitioner based at Tindivanam. What started as a normal protest turned out to be a violent one and the protestors in a bid to make their voices heard, axed huge trees along the National Highways there by stopping all the traffic. More violent protests followed and police had to resort to firing in which more than a dozen protestors died. There was sizeable tension through out and public transport in the state had to be operated with police vehicles on tow. For a few weeks, M.G. Ramachandran led AIADMK government even banned all the public transport off the roads after 8 or 9 pm for security reasons. Vanniyar Sangam had ensured that their voice was heard loud & clear and the government succumbed to their demands.

Probably, this protest gave an idea of the underlying strength among his community that Dr. Ramadoss floated a political party. Thus was born the PMK - Paataali Makkal Katchi. PMK was/is very much a political arm of Vanniyar Sangam and nothing more. In the initial days of the party, Dr. Ramadoss stood tall among the community when he vowed that he or his family would never contest the elections or take any positions of power. That and the catchy slogans like 'வன்னியர் வோட்டு அந்நியர்க்கில்லை' (Vanniyar’s vote is not for any one else) made him the hero of Vanniya community. In 1996 elections to the State Assembly, PMK garnered a decent 4.5% of the votes and cut through the vote bank of the traditional parties. Usually PMK would press on their demands with their strong arm tactics and violent protests, but due to the vote bank politics, the rulers - be it DMK or AIADMK usually overlooked them. Dr. Ramadoss learnt his lessons in politics very quickly and made it a point to strike alliance with one of the major Dravidian parties. Though PMK is strong only in the Northern districts of Tamil Nadu, both Karunanidhi & Jayalalithaa entertained them for the fear of PMK crossing over to the opposite camp. Dr. Ramadoss made use of this factor and each time, he would bargain for more seats in the alliance than the previous time.

In 1998 elections to the Parliament, Dr. Ramadoss (in)famously announced that he would join whichever alliance that gives PMK more number of seats. In one another instance, he sunk to a new low by saying that if PMK struck an alliance with Jayalalithaa led AIADMK, it would be like calling his mom to bed. Within six months of that announcement, he did form an alliance with AIADMK. By switching camps at the right time, PMK might have gone down in the eyes of purists, but it did gain a lot in terms of MPs and MLAs. Some of its MPs eventually became Central Ministers as well, most notable among them is Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss, who is the Union Minister for Health.

Floating a party and being successful at that is not a crime in itself. But what matters is the ugliness of their so-called ideals. For quite sometime now, Dr. Ramadoss has been demanding reservation for Vanniyas in the judiciary. Two or three years ago, he even advocated the bifurcation of Tamil Nadu, thus carving a separate state for Vanniya community.

What matters in PMK's growth is not the evolution of one violent, casteist party. It had other serious repercussions in the political scenario of the state. But it inspired the other power hungry caste leaders to float their own political party and demand representation and reservation. Now we have actor Karthik led Forward Bloc that claims to represent Thevars, Kannappan led Makkal Tamil Desam (recently this party merged with DMK) representing Yadavas, A.C.Shanmugam led The New Justice Party representing Mudaliars, Thirumavalavan led Dalit Panthers of India representing Dalits and a bunch of other smaller parties all claiming to be the "real" representatives of Vanniya community. Every community want to see their men/women in positions of power (& money), but the trouble is everyone wants it as a matter of right and not on the basis of merit. This writer would squarely place the blame on the major parties - all of them without exception, for embracing the little ones in the first place there by giving them their fifteen minutes of fame.

In 2001 general elections to TN Assembly, most of these casteist parties barring the big brother PMK struck alliance with Karunanidhi led DMK. One good outcome of that election is that most of these casteist parties were shown the door as they lost deposits. Unfortunately, those which barely scrapped through are still in the business this time.

There are umpteen castes in the state and so many of them are yet to test the waters in the electoral arena. They would also want to have reservation in jobs, education etc. In the forthcoming years, slowly but steadily rest of them would float their own parties and the bargaining would go on as before. Only the players would be different. How sweet! Long live, Democracy!!

Colour TV? Let me have a blue one please!

This Indian Voter is not sure how many people in India take the election manifestos of the political parties seriously. To the best of this writer's knowledge, election manifestos that are released at the respective party headquarters in the full glare of media seldom reach the common people these parties promise to 'serve'. Very often these parties promise much beyond the sun & the moon and that precisely makes the entire exercise a big mockery.

Doling out or rather promising freebies to public is nothing new for the general practitioners of Indian democracy. Only that the form & volume differs.

Way back in 1967, C.N.Annadurai led DMK upset the Congress applecart and stormed to power on the promise of providing 3 quintals of rice for a rupee (ரூபாய்க்கு மூன்று படி அரிசி). M.G.Ramachandran, was in DMK then and he was the star campaigner for the party. It was MGR who championed the "padi arisi thittam" during the election campaign. In the same election, M.G.Ramachandran also got elected to represent the St. Thomas Mount constituency in the TN Assembly (St. Thomas Mount constituency doesn't exist anymore. It is now being called Alandur). DMK couldn't live up to its poll promise and in the next election, Congress coined a slogan "பரங்கிமலை தாத்தா! படி அரிசி தா தா!!" (parangimalai thaathaa, padi arisi thaa thaa) in apparent reference to M.G.Ramachandran.

Not long ago in 1994, another matinee idol - N.T.Rama Rao in Andhra Pradesh captured power on the promise that rice would be made available for Rs 2 a kg. Even about twelve years back, that was considered to be an impractical promise and NTR came in for heavy criticism from those who cared a thing or two about economy.

Another interesting promise, though it didn't find place in the party manifesto was made in 1998 by AIADMK candidate for Tiruchendur parliamentary constituency. If elected, he promised that, he would have his movies filmed within that constituency. Sounds funny or otherwise, he got elected to the parliament in that election. To those of you who are very curious, the candidate is Ramarajan - film star of early 1990s.

Currently, the manifesto brought out by Karunanidhi led DMK has taken the freebies culture to a new level. Apart from promising 'quality rice' at Rs 2 per kilogram, DMK led government, if voted to power would provide every family in Tamilnadu with a new colour television. Population of TN, according to 2001 census is around 60 million (6 crores). For the sake of convenience, assuming that each family comprises of 6 persons, there would be 10 million (1 crore) familes in the state. Again, assuming that the lowest priced colour TV would cost Rs 7000, if DMK is serious about its manifesto, it would cost the exchequer a whopping Rs 7,000 crore. This writer reckons that Palaniappan Chidambaram - the Union Finance Minister and the one who happens to be an important leader of a party in the DMK led alliance would have squirmed in his seats when he learnt of the above. In the past, Chidambaram has rightly discouraged such freebies and when Jayalalithaa government recently doled out cash relief of Rs. 2000 to the flood victims, he so thoughtfully reasoned out the economic mismanagement of such a measure.

For the general public though, this might - alas, sound very interesting. If one party manages to win the election by giving them free colour TVs, wouldn't the next party get them all free Home Cinema sets? Economy? Come on.. Is that very important than 'Selvi' or 'Kolangal'?

P.S: For the uninitiated, 'Selvi', 'Kolangal' are popular mega serials telecast in Sun TV.