Now for the Big Fight
The official call for the 15th Lok Sabha Elections have been made. The five-phase election that will be held over a month is undoubtedly the most interesting spectacle of this year in this part of the world. Although it is a widely accepted fact that the country sees very little in terms of governance irrespective of who forms the government, voters in this country never seem to give up hope and always look to churn out some good from the system. However shallow the concept of democracy in India is, this mammoth exercise is one of the rare opportunity for the people, to have their little say on who is likely to occupy the seat of power for the next few years.
India has come a long way from one party keeping a strong foothold on the nation. If that is a good sign, the country has also shied away from the bipolar system. The result is the mushrooming growth of regional, sub-regional, casteist parties - none of whom have any kind of vision beyond the next elections, whenever that is. Whether one likes it or not, the victory factor in the elections is very much linked to the alliances that are formed by the various parties. One thing, perhaps the only thing that is never in short supply in India is the number of political parties - all apparently formed to 'serve' the people. With hundreds of them littered all over the country and with the first phase of elections only about a month away, the next few days will see hectic activity as there are quite a lot of loose ends to be tied up, in terms of the parties that are yet to side with one group or the other.
One good thing about the democratic process in India is that, in the absence of any wave (like the sympathy wave in favour of Congress party in 1991 after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi or the strong anti-incumbency wave against Jayalalithaa's AIADMK in Tamilnadu in 1996), it is almost impossible gauge the outcome of the polls, especially the one like general elections. One would never know what the people have in mind while pressing the button in favour of a candidate. While there have been instances where people have overwhelmingly voted for parties with development plank (Narendra Modi's victory in Gujarat in 2007, Sheila Dikshit's hat-trick in Delhi Union Territory in 2008), there have also been cases where the collective psyche of the electorate have been bought over by the promise of freebies (Muthuvelar Karunanidhi's promise of free colour television in 2006 [Tamilnadu], N.T.Rama Rao's (in)famous offer of rice for Rs 2 per kg in 1994 [Andhra Pradesh]). Also, there are numerous examples where the supposed big stars have fallen when it was supposed to be a cake walk (BJP's Jaswant Singh's loss in Chittorgarh Lok Sabha seat in Rajasthan in 1998 when his party performed well across the country; More recently Shibu Soren's loss in Tamar Assembly constituency in Jharkand). That is the reason why elections after elections, many a pollsters are biting the dust for no big a sample space is good enough for a country of India's size and diversity. If one needs an example, think about Congress led United Progressive Alliance's victory in 2004 elections against BJP led National Democratic Alliance that was widely expected to win.
Coming back to the current elections, it is prudent to state that the electorate has stopped bothering themselves about the way in which parties form alliances. There is no such thing called as 'natural allies' or 'alliance based on ideology'. Alliances are formed for the sake of convenience (of the political parties) and that is it. With few more weeks to go before the term of the incumbent government ends, there are still chances of few political parties jumping to the other side of the fence. Pataali Makkal Katchi led by Dr. Ramadoss is a strong candidate to move out of UPA (Incidentally in 2004, they switched sides at the last minute along with Karunanidhi's DMK after sharing power with BJP, as part of NDA). The break up of 11 year old alliance between Bharatiya Janata Party and Biju Janata Dal in the NDA camp and the divorce between Congress and Samajwadi Party in the UPA camp are a short curtain raiser to what the voters are likely to see across the country.
With the parties busy in sealing the alliances and selecting the candidates for the fray, with the people still confused over which one of the evils to choose, with the pollsters busy dishing out predictions that they badly want people to believe, with the media taking sides according to their convenience, the stage is getting ready for the big fight. As it gets set, these columns would take a closer look at the drama, the way it unfolds. Watch out.
India has come a long way from one party keeping a strong foothold on the nation. If that is a good sign, the country has also shied away from the bipolar system. The result is the mushrooming growth of regional, sub-regional, casteist parties - none of whom have any kind of vision beyond the next elections, whenever that is. Whether one likes it or not, the victory factor in the elections is very much linked to the alliances that are formed by the various parties. One thing, perhaps the only thing that is never in short supply in India is the number of political parties - all apparently formed to 'serve' the people. With hundreds of them littered all over the country and with the first phase of elections only about a month away, the next few days will see hectic activity as there are quite a lot of loose ends to be tied up, in terms of the parties that are yet to side with one group or the other.
One good thing about the democratic process in India is that, in the absence of any wave (like the sympathy wave in favour of Congress party in 1991 after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi or the strong anti-incumbency wave against Jayalalithaa's AIADMK in Tamilnadu in 1996), it is almost impossible gauge the outcome of the polls, especially the one like general elections. One would never know what the people have in mind while pressing the button in favour of a candidate. While there have been instances where people have overwhelmingly voted for parties with development plank (Narendra Modi's victory in Gujarat in 2007, Sheila Dikshit's hat-trick in Delhi Union Territory in 2008), there have also been cases where the collective psyche of the electorate have been bought over by the promise of freebies (Muthuvelar Karunanidhi's promise of free colour television in 2006 [Tamilnadu], N.T.Rama Rao's (in)famous offer of rice for Rs 2 per kg in 1994 [Andhra Pradesh]). Also, there are numerous examples where the supposed big stars have fallen when it was supposed to be a cake walk (BJP's Jaswant Singh's loss in Chittorgarh Lok Sabha seat in Rajasthan in 1998 when his party performed well across the country; More recently Shibu Soren's loss in Tamar Assembly constituency in Jharkand). That is the reason why elections after elections, many a pollsters are biting the dust for no big a sample space is good enough for a country of India's size and diversity. If one needs an example, think about Congress led United Progressive Alliance's victory in 2004 elections against BJP led National Democratic Alliance that was widely expected to win.
Coming back to the current elections, it is prudent to state that the electorate has stopped bothering themselves about the way in which parties form alliances. There is no such thing called as 'natural allies' or 'alliance based on ideology'. Alliances are formed for the sake of convenience (of the political parties) and that is it. With few more weeks to go before the term of the incumbent government ends, there are still chances of few political parties jumping to the other side of the fence. Pataali Makkal Katchi led by Dr. Ramadoss is a strong candidate to move out of UPA (Incidentally in 2004, they switched sides at the last minute along with Karunanidhi's DMK after sharing power with BJP, as part of NDA). The break up of 11 year old alliance between Bharatiya Janata Party and Biju Janata Dal in the NDA camp and the divorce between Congress and Samajwadi Party in the UPA camp are a short curtain raiser to what the voters are likely to see across the country.
With the parties busy in sealing the alliances and selecting the candidates for the fray, with the people still confused over which one of the evils to choose, with the pollsters busy dishing out predictions that they badly want people to believe, with the media taking sides according to their convenience, the stage is getting ready for the big fight. As it gets set, these columns would take a closer look at the drama, the way it unfolds. Watch out.
posted by Indian Voter at 4:58:00 AM
3 Comments:
A very interesting article to begin the election festival of 2009. Hoping to see more and more regular articles in this blog. BTW I read that the BJP is thinking of providing free DTH to some urban households who satisfy some crazy criteria and hence woo the young voters.....More such freebies are definitely likely to be announced across the length and breadth of the country.
Very nice blog. There aren't many bloggers who consistently write about politics. Nice work. You should start participating in IndiForum (http://www.indiblogger.in/forum/) and help people think ahead.
Dayanidhi Maran, the union minister for Textiles resigns.
Information Exchange..: Dayanidhi Maran resigns from the union cabinet.
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