BJP and AIADMK: Allies Again?

"Food is the way to anyone's heart" goes the adage. No one agrees with the above more than AIADMK Chief Jayalalithaa Jayaram and Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi. The Chief Minister of Gujarat, who has become a talking point among the political circles for his impressive showing at the hustings recently, was in Chennai to attend the annual day function of Tamil magazine 'Thuglak' and among other things, he got a personal invite for lunch from the indomitable Jayalalithaa Jayaram. Whether or not the 45 course vegetarian meal served by Jayalalithaa to BJP's latest poster boy Narendra Modi and spokesman Ravishankar Prasad will result in a pre-poll alliance between the two parties, speculations are far and wide that the alliance is on and at a higher level this is being seen as the beginning of what one calls 'realignment of forces'.

Thanks to Bharatiya Janata Party's victory at Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh late last year, elections to the Indian Parliament are a good year and half away. Congress appears to be on a sticky wicket with a string of electoral losses at key states and more importantly, the party has to digest the fact that the mother-son duo of Sonia and Rahul are not fetching those votes as they once thought it will. India's grand old party's allies are not helping them either, with Muthuvelar Karunanidhi led DMK making uncomfortable noises over Lord Ram and with Communists holding the Government to ransom on Nuclear Deal with US while at the same time creating a mess at Nandigram in West Bengal.

BJP was also on a similar state until few months back. Having lost power quite unexpectedly in 2004, it was struggling to come to terms with the reality. With its erstwhile allies like Telugu Desam suddenly discovering the party's communal colours and its once enviable second level leadership fighting with one another for supremacy, uninspiring party leadership, sudden death of potential party hopeful Pramod Mahajan, BJP's own share of electoral defeats etc put the party in an unenviable state. However, politics is a game played with people's poor memory. Most of the voters will only remember the latest series of events leading up to the polls. On that count, with the victories at Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh under its belt, BJP has a slight edge over Congress at this point in time. Though there is a long way to go before the party can realistically dream of being back in the corridors of power, with the announcement of Lal Krishna Advani as the party's Prime Ministerial candidate, BJP has set its poll machinery in motion and in effect can hope to cash in on the first mover advantage.

Focusing on Tamil Nadu, although it is still pre-mature to talk about any alliance between BJP and AIADMK, this writer feels that it is very much on the cards. While it would be suicidal for BJP to align with Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Jayalalithaa Jayaram is also shrewd enough not to embrace Congress. It is often said by all and sundry that BJP and AIADMK are 'natural' allies given the fact that both of them shared similar views on Hinduism, national security etc. However, this writer strongly feels that these are mere jargons and has little to do with reality. How then could one explain the fact that BJP had successfully completed five years at the Centre in alliance with the 'unnatural' ally - DMK, while at the same time struggled hard for thirteen months with AIADMK.

Coming to speak of it, BJP - AIADMK alliance is not new for the state. It started way back in 1998, when Bharatiya Janata Party was considered an 'untouchable' by the rest of the pseudo-secular political spectrum. In 1998, while DMK was in power at the State, BJP and AIADMK fought the Lok Sabha polls together (with MDMK). During the course of seat allocation, it appeared that BJP was given a raw deal as AIADMK allocated unfavourable seats to BJP. A case in point being, Jayalalitha ensured that late Rangarajan Kumaramangalam was denied the Salem constituency and allocated that to Vazhapadi K. Ramamurthy (who headed Rajiv Indra Congress and was part of BJP led NDA) at that time. A reluctant Rangarajan had to contest at Tiruchchirappalli Lok Sabha constituency. Incidentally, days before the election serial bomb blasts rocked Coimbatore and the expected anti-incumbency factor took effect ensured that the alliance sailed through with BJP opening its account in Tamil Nadu. The alliance won 25 seats (AIADMK - 18, BJP - 3, MDMK - 3, Rajiv Indra Congress - 1) out of 39. Jayalalithaa Jayaram exposed her true colours by dragging her feet on everything related to the government formation at the Centre. At first, she failed to give her letter of support to the President, which was a necessity at that time given the fractured nature of the verdict. All through the 13 month period that the government lasted, she held Atal Behari Vajpayee led NDA government to ransom with her frequent unreasonable demands. Finally, the uneasy alliance ended when Jayalalithaa Jayaram pulled the plug by withdrawing support to the NDA government, which precisely drove DMK into BJP's folds.

BJP emerged stronger in the mid-term polls that were held in 1999. It had a relatively smooth sailing while in power in the company of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. However in 2004, Karunanidhi chose to come out of National Democratic Alliance led by BJP and formed a rainbow coalition with Congress and other parties. AIADMK was in power at that time and anti-incumbency wave was there for everyone to see due to several unpopular steps of governance taken by Jayalalithaa Jayaram. Perhaps, due to TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor, BJP and AIADMK came together and fought the elections. Even this time, Jayalalithaa Jayaram had her way in seat allocation. She allocated all of seven seats to BJP and even there she ensured that her bete-noire Thirunavukkarasar did not contest the polls by denying the Pudukkottai seat to BJP. In a similar fashion, she allocated North Chennai constituency (contested by Sukumaran Nambiar) to BJP, where as the national party was relatively stronger in South Chennai. The alliance infamously lost by 0-39 to DMK led Democratic Progressive Alliance. Jayalalithaa Jayaram quickly disowned the defeat by saying that the result was a verdict on Atal Behari Vajpayee led NDA government. In hindsight, the state unit of BJP would have rued the missed opportunity. Had they contested on their won in 2004 polls, there was a good chance that the party could have won at least couple of seats (Nagercoil / Coimbatore / Pudukkottai) or could have been in the close second position.

It has not always been an all-win game for AIADMK and Jayalalithaa Jayaram when it comes to alliance with Bharatiya Janata Party. While her party was in power at the Centre, all she managed to secure was few transfers at the Secretary level (Bezboruah, Chief of the Enforcement Directorate; R.K. Kumar, Counsel for ED; N.K. Singh, Revenue Secretary; etc), which brought her only little joy at such an enormous cost. She and her party suffered embarrassment when AIADMK's Sedapatti R Muthiah was asked to resign from the Cabinet (he was the Union Surface Transport Minister at that time) when charges were framed against him for disproportionate wealth amassment case. To top it all, Jayalalithaa Jayaram would remember well that it was her ill temperament while in alliance with the BJP that caused her sworn rival Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam to inch closer to the saffron party and remain in power at the Centre for five years.

While both the parties have decided (well, almost) to bury the bitterness of the past and progress ahead, it would be prudent to make an assessment of their current position. Despite the fact that AIADMK failed in the 2004 Parliamentary elections so miserably, one must credit Jayalalithaa Jayaram to effect a not-too-bad performance of sorts in the 2006 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. Although it was not good enough for AIADMK to form the government in TN, it must be remembered that she battled against a coalition comprising seven parties headed by DMK. If you look back at the TN Assembly election results for the past 20 years, it has always been a clean sweep for either of the Dravidian parties, while the other party would be wiped out with handful of MLAs. In that context, one must say that AIADMK put up a decent performance by winning 61 seats out of the total 225, despite being in power for the previous five years (there by accruing enough anti-incumbency sentiments). At the same time, with many new entrants to the race (DMDK led by Vijayakanth; All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi led by Sarath Kumar etc) and many of them invoking the legacy of late M.G. Ramachandran, electoral race is not the same as they once were. In the bye-elections to two of the Assembly seats in Tamil Nadu, AIADMK came out at a distant third yielding the first two places to DMK and Vijayakanth's Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam.

As for the BJP is concerned, the party's fortunes have only started to look up in the recent times. It has got a very long way to go before they could see themselves as 'favourites' to win the general election. They need to win quite a few important State Assembly elections (like Karnataka) to maintain the momentum. Seventeen or eighteen months is a long time in politics and anything can happen between now and the elections. The party's immediate priority is to identify its alliance partners carefully and craft out strategic partnerships in the states. It looks like BJP is all set to begin that process from South and move upwards. Though BJP is still a non-entity in Tamil Nadu, if the party has learnt any lessons from the past, it must negotiate the number of seats from a position of strength. BJP by now would have made a list of its 'winnable' constituencies and the negotiators should have the knack and mental resolve not to give in a lot.

All said and done about this prospective alliance, a lot depends on how things turn up in the run up to the elections. Paataali Makkal Katchi led by Dr. Ramadoss is likely to break away from the DMK-Congress alliance. It would be interesting to see where he heads, as there is a talk about a possible tie up between Congress and Vijayakanth's DMDK. There is a possibility that Jayalalithaa might have a rethink about AIADMK-BJP alliance if the latter were to lose ground in Karnataka and few other states before next year. If there is one clear winner in this speculation, it is Narendra Modi. After all, he was the one who was served with a 45-course meal. Wasn't he?