Not Analysing....Just Wondering
(This Indian Voter is again pleased to find a mention in one of the articles published in the Chennai edition of Deccan Herald. Unfortunately, the article is not available online. )
How do people vote? What is the thought process that goes on inside people's mind when they go out on D-day, and press the button to exercise their franchise?
- Do they care to weigh all candidates?
- Do they think about their caste/community? Do they think about the party leaders or Chief Ministerial candidate in question?
- Does the 15kg rice bags, 2000 bucks, or Colour TV dazzle in front of their eyes while standing in the line?
- Does the free commute to the polling station matter much to them?
- Will they follow the traditional way of voting for the same party their family had been voting for generations?
- Do they think about the developments in their constituency - be it newly laid out road or a new college?
- Will they be pressing some button knowing all morons are the same?
- Will they just do an inky-pinky-ponky on the buttons of the electronic voting machine?
How exactly would people vote? This is one question for which even seasoned pollsters do not have much of an answer, or even a slightest clue. In the absence of any wave such as death/assasination of a party leader (Indira Gandhi assassination in 1984, Rajiv Gandhi in 1991), strong anti-incumbency factor (against Jayalalithaa in 1996), it is very difficult to know the measuring scale of the voter before he/she presses the button. The truth is that all of the above considerations are possible, but one will never know about the factor that is uppermost in the mind of the voter.
Starting from Loyola College in Chennai, to Thuglak, to NDTV, everyone conducts opinion polls in the run up to elections. Except for Thuglak, who say that they arbitrarily choose about 100 people and get their responses, most of those who conduct the opinion polls claim that their method of data collection is scientific. Since we - the common people, are not connoiseurs in statistical analysis, we tend to either believe what they say or rubbish them with a pinch of salt. oh, and add media world's bias to the issue! - voters would have seen Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam's popularity always at an all time high in the eyes of Sun TV. The same holds good for every political party which has a media house as their patron.
However scientific their sampling might be, one important thing that should be borne in mind is the number of people who actually go out on the D-day and vote. It is a shame that we consider 55% turnout in the elections as a 'good one'. In metros like Chennai, the average turnout in the elections is normally around 40%. This is likely to be even lesser this time as the election day (8th May 2006) happens to be a Monday, which could be taken for a much awaited long weekend and cause people to flock out of the city.
Possibly because of the huge population in our towns, a random sample of even few thousand people is not sufficient enough to gauge the mood of the electorate. That is the reason why pollsters ended up with eggs thrown at their faces when they predicted the NDA cakewalk in 2004 and an AIADMK rout in 2001.
With each of the opinion polls predicting exactly the opposite results, and few neutralists predicting a nect-to-neck race, the ground situation is pretty much the same in this election too. If the actual results on May 11 throw up a hung assembly in TN as some opinion polls seem to suggest, politics of the land would get spicy, and these columns may perhaps be filled up more frequently.
How do people vote? What is the thought process that goes on inside people's mind when they go out on D-day, and press the button to exercise their franchise?
- Do they care to weigh all candidates?
- Do they think about their caste/community? Do they think about the party leaders or Chief Ministerial candidate in question?
- Does the 15kg rice bags, 2000 bucks, or Colour TV dazzle in front of their eyes while standing in the line?
- Does the free commute to the polling station matter much to them?
- Will they follow the traditional way of voting for the same party their family had been voting for generations?
- Do they think about the developments in their constituency - be it newly laid out road or a new college?
- Will they be pressing some button knowing all morons are the same?
- Will they just do an inky-pinky-ponky on the buttons of the electronic voting machine?
How exactly would people vote? This is one question for which even seasoned pollsters do not have much of an answer, or even a slightest clue. In the absence of any wave such as death/assasination of a party leader (Indira Gandhi assassination in 1984, Rajiv Gandhi in 1991), strong anti-incumbency factor (against Jayalalithaa in 1996), it is very difficult to know the measuring scale of the voter before he/she presses the button. The truth is that all of the above considerations are possible, but one will never know about the factor that is uppermost in the mind of the voter.
Starting from Loyola College in Chennai, to Thuglak, to NDTV, everyone conducts opinion polls in the run up to elections. Except for Thuglak, who say that they arbitrarily choose about 100 people and get their responses, most of those who conduct the opinion polls claim that their method of data collection is scientific. Since we - the common people, are not connoiseurs in statistical analysis, we tend to either believe what they say or rubbish them with a pinch of salt. oh, and add media world's bias to the issue! - voters would have seen Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam's popularity always at an all time high in the eyes of Sun TV. The same holds good for every political party which has a media house as their patron.
However scientific their sampling might be, one important thing that should be borne in mind is the number of people who actually go out on the D-day and vote. It is a shame that we consider 55% turnout in the elections as a 'good one'. In metros like Chennai, the average turnout in the elections is normally around 40%. This is likely to be even lesser this time as the election day (8th May 2006) happens to be a Monday, which could be taken for a much awaited long weekend and cause people to flock out of the city.
Possibly because of the huge population in our towns, a random sample of even few thousand people is not sufficient enough to gauge the mood of the electorate. That is the reason why pollsters ended up with eggs thrown at their faces when they predicted the NDA cakewalk in 2004 and an AIADMK rout in 2001.
With each of the opinion polls predicting exactly the opposite results, and few neutralists predicting a nect-to-neck race, the ground situation is pretty much the same in this election too. If the actual results on May 11 throw up a hung assembly in TN as some opinion polls seem to suggest, politics of the land would get spicy, and these columns may perhaps be filled up more frequently.
posted by Indian Voter at 7:48:00 PM
5 Comments:
Nice analysis!! I have voted once till now...Following are the thoughts...
1. Every moron is equally bad, I just chose to vote for the best amoung the worst..
2. Weighed about the candidate and his qualifications
3. Thought about the developments in the community
Wonder what others think about while voting...especially the rural section, because I have seen AIADMK using MGR's image for their campaigning...I am pretty sure this strategy works well..
Same as KK. Irukara group le sumaara edo naatuku kariyam nadakudhu oru aal moolama na avan ku vote podavendiyadudaan.
Hi IV,
The fact is that people thinking so much end up not voting and most of the people who vote do not think at all and believe whatever they are able to see with their shortsighted vision and even shorter memory.
Your article is nice.The average voter turnout in Metros may be 40% and I think you will also be one amoung the 40%.Please tell whether you have cast your vote diligently in past and you are going to do it in this election ? if what are the yardstick you apply before pressing the button. by Shiva
si_123_123@ yahoo.com
KK:: Thanks very much for your comments.
Rural electorate is more vulnerable. In 1996, I was speaking to one old man from a rural pocket in Thanjavur District. He was blasting Jayalalithaa for her atrocious rule. When I asked whom he would vote, he didn't hesitate a second before replying "rettai elaikku daan".
Nivedita:: Thats the bane. We never had the choice between good and the bad. Always, it is bad vs worse.
Hari:: If the rural electorates are like the one I quoted above, educated voted feel that it is beyond their dignity to come out and vote.
Anonymous:: Welcome here. Thanks for your comment.
In the past, I have always ensured that I was in town for the elections and have taken pains to travel to my hometown specifically to exercise my franchise. I keep the overall picture in mind and also look at the candidate. Even if I want to vote for my favourite party (if ever there is one), I would never vote for a person who has got criminal past, which ever party he is from. I try to be as fair as possible from the choices available to me.
One of the members in my family constantly votes for one of the Independent candidates, who doesn't have any choice of winning as he doesn't like any of the major parties.
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