TN Assembly Elections 2006 - Why Jayalalithaa Lost?
The show is now over. The audience as well as the actors have gone home. Elections to the thirteenth legislative assembly of Tamil Nadu has indeed thrown up some interesting results. For only the second time in history, the first one being 1952 elections to the then Madras Presidency, the electorate have favoured a coalition government in the state. Also, for the first time in the recent memory, the electorate have returned a reasonably good strength in the opposition benches.
There might be quite a lot of reasons for Jayalalithaa Jayaram's loss at the hustings as it is nearly impossible to figure out the exact thought process that goes through in the minds of the voters when they press the button, but the below few factors stand out as probable reasons.
Rainbow Alliance: Though the rainbow alliance of 2004, Parliamentary Elections lost its sheen with the exit of Vaiko's MDMK and with new player in the arena - Vijayakanth's DMDK, cobbling together of seven parties (DMK, Congress, PMK, CPI, CPM, Muslim League) meant that the votes of the supporters of these parties in each of the constituencies didn't get scattered.
Forward Block: Traditionally, the people from 'Thevar' (otherwise known as Mukkulathor) community tend to vote for the party that has alliance with 'All India Forward Block' as the late Pasumpon Muthuramalinga Thevar - the demi-god of that community has once led that party in the state during its formative years. More often than not, AIFB has sided with AIADMK there by bringing the Thevar votes to the AIADMK fold. Few months before the elections, actor Karthik, who happens to be from the said community decided to plunge into politics and joined the AIFB. Soon after, he was made the president of the state unit of the party and wanted to ally with Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. One would never know about the problems between Jayalalithaa and Karthik, but the former didn't show any interest in any sort of alliance despite the fact that Jaya made a public announcement that 'her doors are open' and that her party is looking for allies.
Everyone including Karthik knows that AIFB isn't capable of winning even a single seat on its own. But since 'Thevar' community have got the habit of voting en masse to AIFB, in many constituencies in the southern districts of Tamil Nadu, they managed to garner few thousand votes that would have otherwise gone to AIADMK. If we look at the margin of victory and the number of votes secured by AIFB in few constituencies in Southern Districts (Tirunelveli, Srivaikuntam, Sankaranayanar Koil, Cheranmahadevi, Virudhunagar to name a few), it would be very clear that AIFB has effectively split the votes and was responsible for the defeat of many of the AIADMK candidates. Had Jayalalithaa stitched up an alliance with Karthik led AIFB offering one or two seats to the latter, the story would have been a lot different.
DMDK: Wonder how many people expected the 9 month old party - Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam (DMDK) started by actor-politician Vijayakanth to secure 8.32% of the total votes polled in the state? It is a fact that during the campaign Vijayakanth attacked Karunanidhi led DMK alliance more than the Jayalalithaa led AIADMK, but the message that went across to the electorate was actually 'I am here as an alternative'. In many of the constituencies, DMDK candidates polled decent number of votes and finished third. Though the statistics* suggest that the DMDK has eroded the vote bank of DMK, this writer feels that the newer party has managed to lure away voters from both the senior 'kazhagams' and the casteist PMK.
* Statistics:
Vote Share of DMK: 26.40% in 2006 & 30.92 in 2001, a negative swing of 4.52%
Vote Share of AIADMK: 32.52% in 2006 & 31.44% in 2001, a positive swing of 1.08%
It must be noted that the reason for the upward swing of vote share for AIADMK is because it contested in 189 seats in 2006 as against 137 in 2001.
DMK's Manifesto: Until the time DMK released its manifesto, this election appeared to be a smooth sailing for Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. If there is one factor about any manifesto that made people to look up and take notice, it was DMK's promise about providing free Colour Television to every home. Jayalalithaa had every chance to make that promise appear foolish and unfeasible, but she didn't. Instead, she went about promising parallel freebies ranging from 4 grams of Gold to 10 kgs of rice to computers, which made her sound even more of a fool. With in a matter of weeks, Jayalalithaa herself blew up all the chances she had.
Government Employees: Three years have gone past since the over night dismissal of 1,70,000 state government employees in 2003 by Jayalalithaa government and though Jayalalithaa had tried to mend fences with them, it is very difficult to say whether the government employees have forgiven her for the actions she took and the public humiliation they went through.
While the above were some of the reasons for Jayalalithaa's loss, if the question is spun the other way around like 'How Karunanidhi won?', the answers are no different from the above. In all, the political parties in Tamil Nadu has set a very very bad precedent for the rest of the nation by pushing aside all the developmental issues to the backburner and making the people to cast their votes based on whether they fancy a TV, Computer or a milch cow. For the sake of economy and also for people to realise that there is no free lunch, let the new government led by Muthuvelar Karunanidhi does not resort to extreme populism, however feasible they might be.
In hope lies everything.
There might be quite a lot of reasons for Jayalalithaa Jayaram's loss at the hustings as it is nearly impossible to figure out the exact thought process that goes through in the minds of the voters when they press the button, but the below few factors stand out as probable reasons.
Rainbow Alliance: Though the rainbow alliance of 2004, Parliamentary Elections lost its sheen with the exit of Vaiko's MDMK and with new player in the arena - Vijayakanth's DMDK, cobbling together of seven parties (DMK, Congress, PMK, CPI, CPM, Muslim League) meant that the votes of the supporters of these parties in each of the constituencies didn't get scattered.
Forward Block: Traditionally, the people from 'Thevar' (otherwise known as Mukkulathor) community tend to vote for the party that has alliance with 'All India Forward Block' as the late Pasumpon Muthuramalinga Thevar - the demi-god of that community has once led that party in the state during its formative years. More often than not, AIFB has sided with AIADMK there by bringing the Thevar votes to the AIADMK fold. Few months before the elections, actor Karthik, who happens to be from the said community decided to plunge into politics and joined the AIFB. Soon after, he was made the president of the state unit of the party and wanted to ally with Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. One would never know about the problems between Jayalalithaa and Karthik, but the former didn't show any interest in any sort of alliance despite the fact that Jaya made a public announcement that 'her doors are open' and that her party is looking for allies.
Everyone including Karthik knows that AIFB isn't capable of winning even a single seat on its own. But since 'Thevar' community have got the habit of voting en masse to AIFB, in many constituencies in the southern districts of Tamil Nadu, they managed to garner few thousand votes that would have otherwise gone to AIADMK. If we look at the margin of victory and the number of votes secured by AIFB in few constituencies in Southern Districts (Tirunelveli, Srivaikuntam, Sankaranayanar Koil, Cheranmahadevi, Virudhunagar to name a few), it would be very clear that AIFB has effectively split the votes and was responsible for the defeat of many of the AIADMK candidates. Had Jayalalithaa stitched up an alliance with Karthik led AIFB offering one or two seats to the latter, the story would have been a lot different.
DMDK: Wonder how many people expected the 9 month old party - Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam (DMDK) started by actor-politician Vijayakanth to secure 8.32% of the total votes polled in the state? It is a fact that during the campaign Vijayakanth attacked Karunanidhi led DMK alliance more than the Jayalalithaa led AIADMK, but the message that went across to the electorate was actually 'I am here as an alternative'. In many of the constituencies, DMDK candidates polled decent number of votes and finished third. Though the statistics* suggest that the DMDK has eroded the vote bank of DMK, this writer feels that the newer party has managed to lure away voters from both the senior 'kazhagams' and the casteist PMK.
* Statistics:
Vote Share of DMK: 26.40% in 2006 & 30.92 in 2001, a negative swing of 4.52%
Vote Share of AIADMK: 32.52% in 2006 & 31.44% in 2001, a positive swing of 1.08%
It must be noted that the reason for the upward swing of vote share for AIADMK is because it contested in 189 seats in 2006 as against 137 in 2001.
DMK's Manifesto: Until the time DMK released its manifesto, this election appeared to be a smooth sailing for Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. If there is one factor about any manifesto that made people to look up and take notice, it was DMK's promise about providing free Colour Television to every home. Jayalalithaa had every chance to make that promise appear foolish and unfeasible, but she didn't. Instead, she went about promising parallel freebies ranging from 4 grams of Gold to 10 kgs of rice to computers, which made her sound even more of a fool. With in a matter of weeks, Jayalalithaa herself blew up all the chances she had.
Government Employees: Three years have gone past since the over night dismissal of 1,70,000 state government employees in 2003 by Jayalalithaa government and though Jayalalithaa had tried to mend fences with them, it is very difficult to say whether the government employees have forgiven her for the actions she took and the public humiliation they went through.
While the above were some of the reasons for Jayalalithaa's loss, if the question is spun the other way around like 'How Karunanidhi won?', the answers are no different from the above. In all, the political parties in Tamil Nadu has set a very very bad precedent for the rest of the nation by pushing aside all the developmental issues to the backburner and making the people to cast their votes based on whether they fancy a TV, Computer or a milch cow. For the sake of economy and also for people to realise that there is no free lunch, let the new government led by Muthuvelar Karunanidhi does not resort to extreme populism, however feasible they might be.
In hope lies everything.
posted by Indian Voter at 6:14:00 PM
6 Comments:
Gone are the days of good or stable government.
Now Political parties do know that every 5 years ppl. might prefer a change and resort to "make hay while the Rising Sun/Twin Leaf shines"
Its just matter of another 5 years before their misdeeds are forgotten and they return to power.
I liked the above comment, in addition to this blog entry. Sometimes I wonder
- if we even had a good govt. in the first place
- if there's ever a way for a good govt even
- noting the above comment, it is just a matter of 5 years before a govt's misdeeds are conveniently forgotten and they rise to power again, I wonder if we are setting a good example by letting go of those who are getting away with things.
Perfect Analysis.. I was looking forward to such a post from you since the results were out last week. You haven't disappointed your fans, Indian Voter.
Indian Voter, I have been turning up at your blog ever since the election results were out. Thanks for not disappointing and also for a terrific analysis! I hope people start seeing the possibility of some (good) party other than the kazhagams. But this time around the parties would atleast have a fear instilled into them that the voters cannot be taken for granted and chances of a clean sweep are on a decline.
Agreed with you IV. I have analysed what as a state we are looking forward with the new govt in my blog (ramakjn@blogspot.com). Do read and leave your comments. I have been reading your blog very regularly but this is my first comment.
yes, in hope lies everything..an eternal hope!
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