Friday, April 28, 2006

O (Big) Brother Where Art thou?

While the politicians were making promises and the people busy with their choices, two important developments have happened in our country's neighbourhood in the last few days.

The first issue is the unrest and political transition in Nepal that has hogged the headlines all over the world. Ever since King Gyanendra assumed power in 2001, after the royal blood bath that killed King Birendra and his family, there has been growing tensions between the royal family and the political parties. If Maoist rebels took the path of violence to press their demand for abolition of monarchy, the King did his part in complicating the matter by dissolving the parliament and placing the country in emergency.

Finally, things crossed a threshold that people - especially the students started protesting against monarchy. The Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sent one Karan Singh (who also happens to be related to the King) to Nepal as his special envoy, after which the King agreed to restoration of Parliament and transfer of powers.

The second one, is the way the fragile peace process in Sri Lanka collapsed recently. The ceasefire between the LTTE and Sri Lankan Army since 2002, which gave hopes of a peaceful end to the ethnic struggle of more than two decades, was clearly under threat for more than a year. This became more apparent when Sri Lanka's foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar was killed in Colombo a few months ago, and a hawkish Mahinda Rajapakse was elected as the president of the island nation. The uneasy calm was finally shattered when a suicide bomber attacked the Sri Lankan Army headquarters in Colombo injuring the country's army chief, which triggered of the retaliatory attacks on LTTE bases in the north of the country. One doesn't need to be Einstein to tell the direction this is taking.

While both the above developments could fall under "internal affairs" in their respective countries, it is a fact that India's immediate neighbourhood is becoming more and more vulnerable. While India aspires to become a super power, it is an irony that it is hesitant to act when the situation is going out of control in its own backyard.

In case of Nepal, India should have acted long ago. India could have used its status as a regional biggie to impress upon the King on the need to entrust more power to the political parties thereby making the throne a ceremonial position. After all, no other country would be best placed to lecture on democracy than India. What was done towards the end by sending Karan Singh was too little too late. India's response came only after the situation started to spin out of control. It remains to be seen as how the political transition is going to work in the Himalayan kingdom and how well the King is in keeping his promise. Nepalese issue is not something to do just with the democracy. Strategic wisdom tells us that it is not a good sign for India if China keeps getting closer to Nepal. That would not only challenge the authority of India as a sub-continental power, but would also have a severe impact on the security scenario.

Considering the developments in Sri Lanka, both LTTE and the Sri Lankan government were looking towards India to intervene and help extend the truce. Giving a classic example of "once bitten, twice shy", India steadfastly refused to even look in that direction. India needs to realise that the political landscape of the region has changed a lot since the days of Indo-Srilankan accord signed by Rajiv Gandhi and Julian Jayawardane in 1987. After the accord failed miserably, India seems to have taken a policy decision not to intervene in any of its small neighbour's internal problems even when invited. This writer wonders why the policy makers wouldn't realise that the seemingly internal issue has every potential to spill across the waters of Bay of Bengal and severely undermine regional stability.

India's cup of woes doesn't stop with Nepal and Sri Lanka. India has other smaller neighbours like Bangladesh and Bhutan with their own share of problems. It is important that India should mend its fences with its smaller neighbours first promoting trade and regional security. India has no one but itself to blame when these smaller neighbours queue up to befriend the region's other major player - China.

If India ever has any intentions of becoming a great power, it must ensure that it is an unassailable power in the region in the first place. To do that, India needs a full time Foreign Minister. It is high time that the Prime Minister fills up that vacancy in his Cabinet quickly.

1 Comments:

Blogger KK said...

You are true, If India aspires to become a super power they have start helping out all the neighbouring nations...Best example would be the US. US gets involved in a lot of things to remain as the super power.

Great post!

April 29, 2006 12:54 AM  

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