Jayalalithaa's current term - Part 2

Related old posts:

Jayalalithaa's First Term - A Recap

Jayalalithaa's current term - Part 1

Muthuvelar Karunanidhi's arrest in July 2001 by Jayalalithaa government turned out to be a boon in itself for DMK. First, it brought Karunanidhi's two warring sons - MK Stalin & MK Azhagiri to an easy truce, which was much needed in the DMK's first family. Next, PMK - which had only few months earlier quit the DMK alliance to ally with Jayalalithaa came back begging to DMK. Last and more importantly, the general public got the opinion that Karunanidhi's arrest was an act of high-handedness.

With water woes in Chennai adding to the depressed mood of the public, the air of anti-incumbency started to blow right at the beginning of Jaya's term. Jaya might have had only few sympathisers when Justice S.P.Bharucha led Supreme Court bench gave a stunning verdict that her appointment as the Chief Minister is unconstitutional. She handpicked O Panneerselvam - a first time MLA and an unknown face outside of his Periyakulam constituency, to take charge of Chief Ministership. She picked out Panneerselvam overriding all the party seniors to ensure that the new incumbent doesn't seize any advantage of power even inadervently. One need not have to be an Einstein or Newton to workout who called the shots in the Government. At that time, it was even rumoured that Panneerselvam's movement inside his house was being monitored by closed circuit television cameras.

Jayalalithaa, however stormed back to power when Supreme Court cleared her in the TANSI case, though the highest court of the land passed severe strictures against her and even asked her to "atone" by "answering her conscience". She got elected from Andipatti constituency, which was kept warm for her by Thanga Tamizh Selvan. Jayalalithaa's date with the court is not over yet as the 'disproportionate wealth' case was transferred to a special court in Karnataka, though not much has progressed on that case so far.

Jayalalithaa's government was continued to be seen as an oppressive regime for various reasons. Though she kept the so-called 'Mannargudi family' under reasonable check when compared to her first term, imprisonment of Vaiko for about 19 months under POTA had more political colours attached to it rather than national security, as was perceived. When the government staff went on strikein July 2003 protesting on some pension issue, she dismissed nearly 1,70,000 of them in one stroke. This writer however feels that she was right on both of the above issues, but more on that separately. Jayalalithaa, who inherited empty coffers when she took power in 2001 did her best in reviving the state's economy through some tough but unpopular measures. In the first two years of her term, she had as many as four Chief Secretaries and her administration started to be known for the transfer of 'incompatible' officials. She also invited trouble & controversy over her plans to build a new secretariat by demolishing Queen Mary's College in Chennai.

Jaya's frosty relationship with the press continued and she has filed record number of defamation cases against the management of several newspapers. Jayalalithaa even moved a privilege motion against 'The Hindu', for which the assembly speaker ordered the arrest of the editors & senior correspondents. The State police infamously hunted for the journalists, which drew nationwide attention. Later, Supreme Court came to the rescue of 'The Hindu' with Jaya getting an egg on her face.
A combination of all these & the DMK led grand alliance of 7 parties resulted in AIADMK drawing a blank in 2004 Parliamentary elections, which was contested in alliance with BJP. If there was one turning point in Jayalalithaa's way of conduct, it was the 2004 General Elections. She started following an amicable approach right from rolling back all the tough measures she took in the previous three years at the saddle. All the controversial measures like ban on animal sacrifice at the temples, ban on forced conversion, decision on pensions etc were reversed in a matter of weeks. Giving further goose bumps to opposition, she announced loads of freebies to almost every section of the society.

Jaya's change of style brought change in her fortunes too. The elusive sandalwood smuggler Veerappan was shot dead by the police in October 2004. To give her due credit, Jayalalithaa was never soft on Veerappan unlike her predecessor M. Karunanidhi and firmly believed that there should be no negotiations with criminals like him. Chennai's water woes got a temporary reprieve when the New Veeranam project got implemented. Though there were several complaints over it later on, it did create an impression in the public that she tried her best on that front. Film industry rallied behind her when she introduced tough anti-piracy laws. Even though these measures were not fool proof, it was a good first step.

Jayalalithaa's broke her pro-Hindu image and moved towards the secular bandwagon when she had Kanchi Shankaracharya arrested on murder charges on Diwali day in 2004. For quite a long time, Kanchi Shankaracharya was considered to be an advisor of Jayalalithaa and it was believed that he was the man behind the ban on forced conversions. Somewhere in the past, they fell apart and by having him arrested on murder charges, Jayalalithaa created an image that she is impartial & effective administrator. However, in a bid to humiliate him further, she went overboard and denied him a fair trial, which was also observed by Supreme Court, which transferred the case to neighbouring Pondicherry.

Though 2004 ended on a sad note on account of Tsunami, the State Government earned kudos from many corners for effectively handling the relief. It is being said that normal life has returned for good measure in the coastal areas, which were devastated in an unprecedented way. Industrial sector started to look good with majors like Nokia, BMW planning to set up plants in the outskirts of Chennai. It was both ugly & interesting to see Jayalalithaa & Union Minister Dayanidhi Maran claiming credit for almost every development in Tamil Nadu. Jaya was sailing smooth in 2005 and every one expected her to bring forward the Assembly elections while the tide is in her favour. She however chose to complete the term.

2005 was a rainy year for Tamilnadu. Capital Chennai & the rest of Tamilnadu received record rainfall that Cauvery was gushing throughout. By now, Jayalalithaa had learnt her lessons in politics very well. She very well knew that people ought to remember more of what happened in the most recent past than any grand plans that would take shape after few years. She ordered a relief of Rs.2,000 to almost all the residents of rain affected areas. This writer feels that it is one single act of her government that certainly went down well with the public and is certain to reflect in the May elections. The timing was so perfect and implementation very effective that the money in cash reached the hands of the people just few months before the elections was announced.

Compared to her first term (1991-96), Jayalalithaa Jayaram's second term was more reasonable. This term had its own share of controversies, personal vendettas, stupidities, blame games, mismanagement, prostrations and what not. But it also had its own share of constructive elements as well. If Jayalalithaa manages to negotiate the incumbency factor & manages to scrape through, this writer feels that it would be the case of people feeling "give the devil its due".

That was indeed a master stroke!

Note: This post was written immediately on hearing the news about Sonia Gandhi's resignation from Loksabha. At the time of writing, Sonia or anyone hasn't made any statement regarding the same.

It looks like Sonia Gandhi has got some good advisor to consult with. In 2004, she made an excellent move by renouncing premiership of the country and at one stroke blunted NDA/BJP's foreign origin 'brahmastra'. No one including her own partymen expected this, but that clearly showed that she was ready to play the tough game.

Fast forwarding the scenes to last week, based on a complaint most likely from Congress men, Election Commission recently disqualified Rajya Sabha MP Jaya Bachchan (Samajwadi Party) on the grounds that she was holding an Office of Profit. Perhaps, those who originally complained against Jaya didn't actually expect that the same law could backfire at them. NDA - which has been losing strength as well as meaning in the last two years, suddenly found a bright light at the end of the tunnel. It quickly joined hands with Samajwadi Party, sympathised with them over Jaya Bachchan's disqualification and made a complaint against Sonia Gandhi and few others including speaker Somnath Chatterjee over the fact that the same law must be enforced upon them as they were holding office of profit. Things started to become interesting since it involved Sonia Gandhi rather than anyone else. She came under scanner as she is the chairperson of National Advisory Council as well as the Government funded Rajiv Gandhi Foundation.

Initially, the Congress was putting up a brave front. They were pooh poohing Opposition's claim that Sonia Gandhi wouldn't be affected as both the bodies she heads now have nothing to do with Government. But then, all of a sudden, they started to panic. It was very much apparent that they started considering an ordinance, apparently to save Sonia from imminent disqualification. The Indian Express somehow got wind of the idea and put that up in its front page on Wednesday, the 22nd instant. Opposition got a shot in the arm as Rajya Sabha Chairman Bhairon Singh Shekawat spilled the beans in saying that the Government has sent in a request to adjourn the house sine die. Otherwise, he would have adjourned the house until 10th May. The significance of this is that, if the house is adjourned until a certain date, it would be difficult to bring in the ordinance. These developments made NDA to meet President Kalam and requested him not to give his assent to any such ordinance that the Government might bring up. It appeared yesterday that Kalam was getting ready for a litmus test.

Had the Government brought in an ordinance to save Sonia, that would have been the single biggest slap on democracy in the recent times. To bring in an ordinance to save a single person's membership to the house, that too when the house is in session would be scandalous. Also, applying different yardsticks to different members - Jaya Bachchan & Sonia Gandhi would be nothing short of double standards. It wouldn't have just been an embarassment to the Government, but would have also seriously questioned the integrity of the President, had he given his assent. However, from the Jharkand episode last year, we know to what lengths the current dispensation would go to save their skins.

While all eyes were at the Government, Sonia Gandhi simply resigned her Loksabha membership. What a master stroke that was. Again, in one single stroke she not only saved the Government a severe embarassment, but also robbed the Opposition of their potential weapon. Now, the Congress managers can go round the town with the message about how Sonia 'sacrificed' her MP, which anyway she would have lost. All this make this reader think that she definitely has got some good advisor to consult with. Only that he/she is not being consulted on a regular basis.

P.S: Much need to be told about that particular Act that was used to disqualify Jaya Bachchan. That will be on a different post.

Non-serious candidates

Non-serious candidates

There isn't much going on in TN at the moment. The next round of tamasha would begin only after the respective camps have finalised the seat for their alliance partners. There would be lot of grumble, mumble & last minute bargaining. Once the dust settles on that one, final battlelines would be drawn. It is during this phase we would get to know who would be contesting from where.

One of the good things to have happened to our democratic setup in the last decade apart from the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) is that the way the Election Commission got rid off the non-serious candidates. If the nomination fee hadn't been raised to its present levels (Rs 10,000 for Assembly Constituency & Rs 25,000 for Parliamentary Constituency if I am not wrong), even this writer would have tried her luck at the hustings. It would be worth remembering that about 1035 candidates - most of them farmers contested from Modakurichi assembly constituency in Tamilnadu in 1996 general election in protest against some cause. That many candidates in the fray is a record of sorts as nomination fee at that time was Rs 250. Ballot paper had to be in the form of a 80 page booklet for that election. Subbulakshmi Jagadeesan of DMK, who is now a Union Minister got elected from Modakurichi at that time.

Look how the TOP has spun so far..

Look how the TOP has spun so far..

V Gopalswamy, as Vaiko was originally known, was one of the prominent personalities in DMK until 1993. Mentored by late DMK stalwart Murasoli Maran, Gopalswamy was a member of the Upper House of the Parliament and gained prominence due to his oratory skills. Like many politicians in mid-1980s, Gopalswamy was and still is a well known supporter of LTTE. Sometime in 1989-90, he made an infamous boat trip to Sri Lanka & met the LTTE Chief - Velupillai Prabhakaran, which not only shot him to prominence, but also severely embarrassed the DMK Government in TN, for it was the time when the politicians of the state started disassociating themselves from LTTE due to their violent methods. Nevertheless, Gopalswamy’s career graph was on the rise and this did bothered M. Karunanidhi, as he saw him as a direct threat for his son M.K. Stalin.

Jayalalithaa, who was in power in 1993, simply proved that she has come of age in politics by forwarding M. Karunanidhi - the intelligence report, which said that there is a death threat against the latter by LTTE in favour of V Gopalswamy. Karunanidhi, who was waiting for an opportunity to belittle Gopalswamy, made it public only to see a huge outcry over the issue and out walked Gopalswamy in early 1994 to form MDMK, which expands to Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

TOP was the symbol alloted to MDMK and it contested the 1996 elections to the State Assembly & Lok Sabha on its own. Somewhere in between, Gopalswamy officially became Vaiko and contested from Vilathikulam assembly constituency & Sivakasi parliamentary constituency, but lost in both as the state was swept by anti-Jaya wave, which favoured the DMK-TMC combine. His party didn't get a single seat

Less than 2 years later, in February 1998 parliamentary elections - MDMK allied with BJP led NDA in which AIADMK was also part of. For the first time, MDMK tasted success at the hustings and sent its men to the Parliament.

Thirteen months later, when AIADMK pulled down the Vajpayee Government, MDMK stood with BJP led NDA. This time, it was DMK that joined the NDA bandwagon. NDA won the polls convincingly and MDMK had four ministers in the Central Government.

During 2001 Assembly elections, MDMK still remained with NDA in the centre, but Vaiko had differences with Karunanidhi in seat sharing and decided to go it alone. Despite all odds, AIADMK swept to power and MDMK couldn't win even in a single constituency.
Even when Vaiko was detained under POTA for about 19 months, he remained in NDA with his partymen in the Central Cabinet. This writer feels that Vaiko's detention under POTA was right in every sense, but that is a topic which deserves a separate post. As the 2004 Parliamentary elections approached, Karunanidhi started warming up towards Vaiko. Vaiko, being an emotional person when it comes to his relationship with his parent party, no time was lost in the rapprochement. When DMK quit the NDA, MDMK followed suit. DMK allocated four seats to MDMK and the alliance swept the polls in Tamil Nadu. Vaiko didn't contest the polls and was the star campaigner for the alliance. MDMK however decided not to be part of the ministry.

After 2004 polls, Vaiko always made sure that he remained in the news. His recent posture, keeping every one guessing about his thoughts on the alliance over shadowed any other political development in the state. After wading through lots of media speculation, offers and counter-offers, this time around in 2006, Vaiko has decided to ally with AIADMK. Though Jayalalithaa has offered MDMK 35 seats, it remains to be seen whether she would allocate the ones desired by Vaiko and his men. When he allied with Jaya about eight years ago, his contention was that he allied with BJP, who in turn allied with AIADMK. This time around, he has no such excuses to offer. Instead, it looks like he has bowed to the popular opinion within his party.

Politics would make strange bedfellows. In that context, Vaiko's alliance with AIADMK is not a surprise. There are ample examples of opportunist alliance involving almost everyone in the political spectrum.

Unlike Dr. Ramadoss' PMK, which is only strong in Vanniyar dominated North Tamil Nadu, MDMK has got its presence throughout Tamil Nadu. But, that is precisely the party's weakness. The party is not strong enough to win in any place, although it is there everywhere. For both the camps, MDMK would be an ideal foil to split the votes. Had it not been for the mega-alliance of DMK, Jayalalithaa might be contented if MDMK had formed a third front. This writer feels that if MDMK is allocated the desired constituencies, there is a good chance for it to make its debut into the State Assembly this time. That, would only increase its bargaining power in the next elections, whenever that is. Let us wait for the verdict on May 11.

Entertainment has just begun

With the D-day of May 8 clearly in sight, it is an irony that the battle lines aren't very clear yet. For those who have been following politics, the double U turn of Vaiko within a fortnight wouldn't have been a big surprise. After all, if there was any surprise element in the move, it was when Vaiko announced about 10 days ago that he would stick with DPA.

At the risk of sounding biased, this writer feels that this move is good for the state in one way. If you look at the electoral history of Tamil Nadu, the people of the state has always favoured a single party rule. The good thing about that is that it provides a stable government leaving us to look towards other states for real time entertainment such as rotation chief-ministership etc. But the down side of this is that, the verdict always remain one-sided i.e., the ruling party had always enjoyed a brutal majority since 1989. One of the direct impact of this is that the conduct of the State Assembly becomes a butt of jokes, which is not in the larger interest of the state. Unfortunately, Speakers of TN Assembly - right from Tamizh Kudimagan to more recent Kalimuthu, have always behaved as party sychopants and due to the tiny opposition on the floor - have relied more on marshals rather than allow any purposeful discussion to take place.

Due to the realignment of forces (what a sweet & diplomatic term, you see!) and also due the absence of any wave at the time of writing, there are chances that which ever 'kazhagam' forms the government, they will be greeted with a good strength in the opposition.

Sixty days is a long time in politics. Anything might happen in this period. We can look forward to few more rounds of entertainment. First, when the main political parties allot the seats to their partners. Next, when the respective parties name their candidates. For now, sit back & relax folks. The show has just begun.