Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Look how the TOP has spun so far..

Look how the TOP has spun so far..

V Gopalswamy, as Vaiko was originally known, was one of the prominent personalities in DMK until 1993. Mentored by late DMK stalwart Murasoli Maran, Gopalswamy was a member of the Upper House of the Parliament and gained prominence due to his oratory skills. Like many politicians in mid-1980s, Gopalswamy was and still is a well known supporter of LTTE. Sometime in 1989-90, he made an infamous boat trip to Sri Lanka & met the LTTE Chief - Velupillai Prabhakaran, which not only shot him to prominence, but also severely embarrassed the DMK Government in TN, for it was the time when the politicians of the state started disassociating themselves from LTTE due to their violent methods. Nevertheless, Gopalswamy’s career graph was on the rise and this did bothered M. Karunanidhi, as he saw him as a direct threat for his son M.K. Stalin.

Jayalalithaa, who was in power in 1993, simply proved that she has come of age in politics by forwarding M. Karunanidhi - the intelligence report, which said that there is a death threat against the latter by LTTE in favour of V Gopalswamy. Karunanidhi, who was waiting for an opportunity to belittle Gopalswamy, made it public only to see a huge outcry over the issue and out walked Gopalswamy in early 1994 to form MDMK, which expands to Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

TOP was the symbol alloted to MDMK and it contested the 1996 elections to the State Assembly & Lok Sabha on its own. Somewhere in between, Gopalswamy officially became Vaiko and contested from Vilathikulam assembly constituency & Sivakasi parliamentary constituency, but lost in both as the state was swept by anti-Jaya wave, which favoured the DMK-TMC combine. His party didn't get a single seat

Less than 2 years later, in February 1998 parliamentary elections - MDMK allied with BJP led NDA in which AIADMK was also part of. For the first time, MDMK tasted success at the hustings and sent its men to the Parliament.

Thirteen months later, when AIADMK pulled down the Vajpayee Government, MDMK stood with BJP led NDA. This time, it was DMK that joined the NDA bandwagon. NDA won the polls convincingly and MDMK had four ministers in the Central Government.

During 2001 Assembly elections, MDMK still remained with NDA in the centre, but Vaiko had differences with Karunanidhi in seat sharing and decided to go it alone. Despite all odds, AIADMK swept to power and MDMK couldn't win even in a single constituency.
Even when Vaiko was detained under POTA for about 19 months, he remained in NDA with his partymen in the Central Cabinet. This writer feels that Vaiko's detention under POTA was right in every sense, but that is a topic which deserves a separate post. As the 2004 Parliamentary elections approached, Karunanidhi started warming up towards Vaiko. Vaiko, being an emotional person when it comes to his relationship with his parent party, no time was lost in the rapprochement. When DMK quit the NDA, MDMK followed suit. DMK allocated four seats to MDMK and the alliance swept the polls in Tamil Nadu. Vaiko didn't contest the polls and was the star campaigner for the alliance. MDMK however decided not to be part of the ministry.

After 2004 polls, Vaiko always made sure that he remained in the news. His recent posture, keeping every one guessing about his thoughts on the alliance over shadowed any other political development in the state. After wading through lots of media speculation, offers and counter-offers, this time around in 2006, Vaiko has decided to ally with AIADMK. Though Jayalalithaa has offered MDMK 35 seats, it remains to be seen whether she would allocate the ones desired by Vaiko and his men. When he allied with Jaya about eight years ago, his contention was that he allied with BJP, who in turn allied with AIADMK. This time around, he has no such excuses to offer. Instead, it looks like he has bowed to the popular opinion within his party.

Politics would make strange bedfellows. In that context, Vaiko's alliance with AIADMK is not a surprise. There are ample examples of opportunist alliance involving almost everyone in the political spectrum.

Unlike Dr. Ramadoss' PMK, which is only strong in Vanniyar dominated North Tamil Nadu, MDMK has got its presence throughout Tamil Nadu. But, that is precisely the party's weakness. The party is not strong enough to win in any place, although it is there everywhere. For both the camps, MDMK would be an ideal foil to split the votes. Had it not been for the mega-alliance of DMK, Jayalalithaa might be contented if MDMK had formed a third front. This writer feels that if MDMK is allocated the desired constituencies, there is a good chance for it to make its debut into the State Assembly this time. That, would only increase its bargaining power in the next elections, whenever that is. Let us wait for the verdict on May 11.

2 Comments:

Blogger Kaps said...

IMHO MDMK's strength / reach is a bit exaggerated. I doubt whether they have the guts to stand alone (although they might have done so in the past) in the next election. But MK might not be around till then and nobody can predict the political climate during the next elections.

March 09, 2006 5:14 PM  
Blogger Saravan said...

>> MDMK's strength / reach is a bit exaggerated.
Unlike PMK, MDMK's strength is spread throughout Tamil Nadu especially in Southern TN. Because of that MDMK could not transform its votes into assembly seats.

>> I doubt whether they have the guts to stand alone
Except DMK and ADMK, no party in TN has the guts to stand alone.

After MK, DMK will split due to dynastic politics of Stalin, Dayanidhi Maran and Alagiri. At that time Vaiko has the definite advantage over the others.

March 10, 2006 9:36 AM  

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